Omicron is in full force in Vermont.
Months after the Delta variant of Covid-19 hit the state, the more contagious Omicron variant has once again changed Vermont’s definition of normal.
In just a week, the state’s seven-day case average has more than doubled, hospitalizations have risen 17% and the seven-day positivity rate has hit 12% — more than double Vermont’s discarded reopening benchmark of 5% — according to state data.
The Vermont Department of Health reported 1,727 new Covid-19 cases Tuesday, shattering the one-day case record set just a few days earlier. Eighty-three people are hospitalized with Covid, including 19 in intensive care units.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now reports that Omicron is the dominant strain in New England. Cases in the region are up 82%, and nearby New York’s case rate is the highest in the nation, while its hospitalizations tick upward.
Although Vermont state officials did not hold their regular Covid press conference Tuesday, the Department of Financial Regulation released its weekly report, which includes detailed data and an overview of what officials forecast in the coming days.
Covid cases are expected to “sharply increase” over the next four weeks, “fueled by (the) post-holiday surge combined with (the) more-transmissible Omicron variant,” the report reads.
Deaths also are “not expected to decrease,” according to the report. Two Covid patients in the state have died so far in January, according to the Department of Health — following a month in which 60 died — for a total of 480 deaths during the pandemic.
The Department of Financial Regulation report also noted that at a national level, Omicron is hitting urban counties hardest. New York City and Washington, D.C., have among the highest rates in the country right now. Vermont, by comparison, has the 10th-lowest case rate in the nation.
But according to the report, the data indicates that “more rural counties can expect to see greater impacts from Omicron in the coming weeks,” similar to what urban counties are experiencing.
Bennington County has the highest Covid case rate in the state right now, followed by Chittenden, Rutland and Washington counties. Case rates increased in every county this week, and 11 counties broke records.
Covid infection remains highest among younger Vermonters. The case rate among people 0 to 25 is almost five times the rate among people 65 and older, according to the report.
But cases are up 156% among people in the oldest age group, which may be contributing to the rise in hospitalizations. Hospital stays are up 17% over the past week, while critical care usage is up 13%. The number of available hospital and ICU beds has begun to drop statewide, although both are still far higher than the lowest points of November and December.
Roughly two-thirds of Vermonters hospitalized or in critical care for Covid-19 are unvaccinated, a rate that has remained steady for the past few months. But breakthrough infections have risen sharply this week.
The Department of Health’s data for breakthrough hospitalizations is more difficult to interpret, since it only accounts for hospital patients through Jan. 1, before the most recent jump in hospitalizations. Unvaccinated Vermonters still had a far higher rate of hospitalization compared to fully vaccinated Vermonters as of that time.
At a press conference in December, Health Commissioner Mark Levine said case numbers during the Omicron surge should be read with caution, because the variant has a different effect than Delta. It appears to be less likely to cause severe illness, based on reports from other countries that have had the variant circulating for a longer time.
But Anne Sosin, a Dartmouth College policy fellow who specializes in rural health equity, said that case numbers are still a “leading indicator” for understanding Omicron’s impact on Vermont’s workforce, schools and health care systems.
She also pointed out that even if Omicron is milder, a surge in cases may lead to strain on the state’s hospitals. “There's a lot of uncertainty around what the demands on hospitals will be,” she said.
And since the evidence for Omicron’s mildness is still emerging, Sosin said, “It's really not clear how it's going to play out across different populations.”
The state’s modeling based on CDC data displays a range of possible scenarios, combining different models created by different institutions. Sosin pointed to one of the models in particular, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, which takes state policies and individual behavior into account.
Assuming Vermont’s current mask compliance of about 53%, it predicts as many as 5,500 infections per day at the peak of the Omicron surge. “We don’t know whether we’ll actually reach that point or not, but it suggests this (current case data) may be a fraction of what we’ll see in the future,” she said.
[Looking for data on breakthrough cases? See our reporting on the latest available statistics.]
Levine has also spoken about the difficulties of interpreting the state’s rising positivity rate. In the past seven days, 12% of the state’s PCR tests have come back positive, the highest level since March 2020. By comparison, the state aimed for a positivity rate below 5% when reopening businesses that summer.
But Levine said that the positivity rate may be skewed upward by the increased prevalence of antigen tests, which are not included in the positivity rate calculations. Asymptomatic Vermonters may be more likely to reach for a rapid test rather than opt for the more accurate, but slower, PCR test.
Sosin said it was difficult to say how rapid tests are affecting Vermont’s positivity rate without knowing how many rapid tests are being used across the state.
“Anecdotally, many are reporting difficulty in accessing both PCR and rapid testing. That's maybe part of the equation, but it's really hard to comment,” she said.
At the same time, she said, the bottom line is that the state’s dashboard numbers do indicate some level of rapid community transmission. “The true expense of transmission at communities is unclear, but the trajectory of the epidemic or the trajectory of the surge is,” she said.
Get the latest statistics and live updates on our coronavirus page.
Sign up for our coronavirus email list.
Tell us your story or give feedback at coronavirus@vtdigger.org.
Support our nonprofit journalism with a donation.