Editor’s note: This commentary is by John McCormick, of Bristol, who has a 30-year background working with NGOs in Washington, D.C., where he also volunteered for homelessness organizations.
The Global Warming Solutions Act (GWSA) became law, on Sept. 22, when the General Assembly overrode Gov. Phil Scott’s veto. That train has left the station. Where is it heading? Likely a court will decide that if opponents file a lawsuit declaring H.688 unconstitutional and demand a permanent injunction.
The governor’s veto message outlined his concern with the act’s constitutionality while voicing agreement with its intent: “I share the Legislature’s sense of urgency to reduce emissions and enhance the resiliency of Vermont’s infrastructure and landscape in the face of a changing climate. I believe the most expeditious path is a step-wise approach that focuses first on developing an economically feasible and responsible plan to meet the emissions reduction requirements and putting in place the mechanisms — likely a mix of regulatory requirements and financial and technical assistance programs — needed to ensure that the work will be sustained.”
He included actions already taken:
“In July, I signed a memorandum of understanding with states around the country to accelerate electrification of the medium- and heavy-duty bus and truck market. The agreement calls for 100 percent of all new medium- and heavy-duty vehicle sales to be zero emission vehicles by 2050. Additionally, as you are aware, I have continued to propose significant investments in electric vehicle initiatives including purchasing incentives and infrastructure build out. Additionally, this January prior to our financial challenges incurred from the COVID-19 pandemic, I proposed directing 25 percent of all future budget surpluses to home weatherization and additional transportation electrification.”
Legislators can take the governor at his word and begin a dialogue, at the earliest opportunity, in the 2021 General Assembly. They can establish a parallel track to shape the council’s appetite for greenhouse gas reductions by taking into account the jurisdictional and budgetary implications of proposals. Vermont’s budget pressures will increase in the several years ahead while the council designs its plan. It must be reflective how the state budget will be affected. For example, electric school buses have attracted public attention but Vermont’s 2020 Annual Energy Report estimated a cost of $1,200/ton of carbon dioxide reduction.
Vermont’s transportation sector represents 45% and building heat and hot water add 23% to the emissions total. Scott is an advocate for addressing those majority sectors. The Transportation and Climate Initiative (TCI) is pending and could provide off-budget funds to shift the state toward greater reliance upon electric-powered vehicles. The General Assembly supports the TCI process and ratification requires legislative approval. The state Weatherization Assistance Program funding can be increased but workforce limitations have to be addressed. Building energy standards where the focus of the governor’s recent Climate Change Commission and those recommendations await legislative approval.
The council will eventually convene, hold public hearings, draft proposed regulations, brief the legislators and executive branch and fulfill all its requirements.
The Legislature crafted this aggressive action to establish a council to draw up a climate solutions plan with a tight calendar of actions that cannot function if hindered by delays – either by inaction or litigation.
GWSA is driven by timelines with not much time available to achieve its goals:
— Not less than 26% from 2005 greenhouse gas emissions by Jan. 1, 2025.
— Not less than 40% from 1990 greenhouse gas emissions by Jan. 1, 2030.
— Not less than 80% from 1990 greenhouse gas emissions by Jan. 1, 2050.
The latest 2016 estimate of greenhouse gases was 9.76 million tons (mmt) compared to the 2005 estimate of 10.24 mmt. The impact of Covid-19 on Vermont’s economy (and a salute to Scott’s managing the pandemic) will likely lower 2020 emissions. The act, however, set a limit of 7.58 mmt by 2026 so emission reductions of 1.11 mmt will be required.
The 23-member council must be established within 60 days (Nov. 21) of enactment and hold its first meeting within 30 days following the appointments. Finally, the council must adopt its action plan on or before Dec. 1, 2021 – 11 months from enactment.
Assuming the council can begin its business by Christmas, it is required to report to the Legislature, by Jan. 15, 2021, its activities. Could its failure to meet that requirement trigger a lawsuit for non-compliance? More to the point, would a court challenge of its validity put the act on hold indefinitely?
The urgency to mitigate climate change in Vermont demands a more comprehensive effort by the governor and the legislators. Leaving the Global Warming Solutions Act to the fate of the courts is a risk for which there should be a companion effort by the executive and legislative branches.
