[H]ouse Republicans have had little success in slowing down progressive legislation as bills have cruised through the Statehouse in recent months. But as the end of the session nears, they are set to play spoiler.
The House GOP’s vote last week to uphold the governor’s first veto of the year — a toxic contamination bill — not only killed that bill for this session, it also laid to rest whatever hope was left for other Democratic initiatives adamantly opposed by the administration.
“We will sustain the governor,” House Minority Leader Don Turner, R-Milton, said in an interview last week. “I can’t say on what bills … because it’s going to depend on the issue.”
Overriding a veto in the House requires a two-thirds majority. Last week 50 Republicans and three independents successfully voted to keep alive Scott’s veto of a bill that would have created a new toxic chemical review agency.
House Republicans say they will wholeheartedly support future vetoes; and that puts a number of bills in peril as Scott has threatened to reject 15 bills and Democratic representatives don’t have the votes to override.
Gov. Phil Scott has been outspoken in his opposition to legislative proposals that would raise new taxes or fees. In a March letter to legislative leaders, he targeted bills he said would raise the cost of living or hurt the business climate of the state.
That means key proposals backed by the House Democratic leadership, including budget and tax bills, both of which are the subject of fraught negotiation, and clean water funding are likely doomed by the governor’s veto pen.
Last week, Scott said he was “fairly certain” the Legislature would face a veto session in June. Senate leader Tim Ashe, however, has said he and House Speaker Mitzi Johnson will not schedule a veto session. That means the governor would have to make the call on whether to schedule a special session instead.
The main difference between the two? In a veto session, lawmakers can only consider legislation in play from the current biennium. Special sessions, on the other hand, enable lawmakers to clean the slate and start over with legislation — including budget and tax bills, according to information from the Secretary of the Senate’s office.
Turner said the Republican caucus will likely garner support to sustain future vetoes if they’re handed down in the coming weeks.
Turner and other Republicans have said they are willing to work with their colleagues on legislation before the end of the session. But with some proposals, like the minimum wage bill, it may be hard for the parties to negotiate.
“I think we as a caucus have certain goals that we outlined before the session started: growing the economy, not raising a lot of taxes and fees,” Turner said. “The minimum wage was not in our goal, so I would expect that that will be opposed.”
The minimum wage bill, which passed the Senate in February and is now before the House Appropriations Committee, would raise the minimum wage from $10.50 an hour to $15 an hour by 2024.
Eric Davis, a professor emeritus of political science at Middlebury College, said he expects Scott will veto the minimum wage proposal and find the support in the House from Republicans and many independents, to back the move.
“I think the governor could count on in the low 50s, a number of votes to sustain his vetoes, which is enough in the House,” Davis said.
It may be possible for Democrats and Republicans to come to agreements on some proposals this session, according to Davis, but on the minimum wage bill, that could more challenging.
“Things involving budget and taxes, it’s easier to come to a consensus cause you can split the difference,” he said. “Things like minimum wage and paid family leave are more difficult, because they’re more questions of principle.”
Republicans have raised concerns over the impact the minimum wage bill could have on small businesses, particularly in rural areas.
Turner said he expects his caucus would have the support to sustain a veto of S.40 and stressed that he doesn’t want to see the wage hiked this session.
“Leave it alone. Don’t touch it,” he said. “Let the market work the way the market works.”
Speaker Johnson said the minimum wage proposal is critical to making Vermont affordable for low-income residents.
“If we want a state that supports families, that supports a strong healthy future, that’s attractive to young people, then we need policies that are accommodating to young families and that are accommodating to entry-level workers,” she said in an interview on Thursday.
“I think even if it’s vetoed, even if we can’t override, I think a very big segment of Vermont wants to see people speaking up for them.”
Scott and other Republicans have also taken aim at S.260, a proposal which in its current form, calls for pollution-reduction efforts to be funded with an increase of 0.25 percent in the state’s rooms and meals tax and with revenue from unclaimed bottle and can deposits.
Rep. David Deen, D-Putney, chair of the House Fish, Wildlife and Water Resources Committee, previously proposed a $2 per night surcharge on hotel rooms to raise the revenue.
Both versions are seen as stopgap measures, taking effect in the year 2020 — only in the event the state has failed to identify other sources of funding by then.
“If another source comes, if another idea comes up, then we still have time to change it before something takes effect, but we’ve been kicking this can down the road for a few years,” Johnson said of the clean water proposal.
Turner said Republicans would likely move to sustain a veto of the clean water proposal, if it contained a tax or fee.
“We are not going to buy into the rooms and meals tax and the $2 per room,” he said.
Another proposal that could see a Scott veto includes S.197, a bill that would make it easier for Vermonters harmed by toxic pollution to recover damages for their injuries from polluters.
Rep. Heidi Scheuermann, R-Stowe, said she thinks Scott will be more inclined to work with Democratic lawmakers on legislation, than to take an aggressive approach.
“He likes better to do that than to wave around a veto pen,” Scheuermann said.
But if vetoes do come down, she suspects House Republicans will avail their support.
“I think Republicans are determined to ensure that our governor maintains some influence,” Scheuermann said. “If there’s an override of the governor’s veto, that diminishes any influence the governor has.”
