Though House Speaker Shap Smith’s Saturday adjournment pronouncement proved unattainable, he is now confidently predicting the Legislature will likely go home on Wednesday if senators and representatives can sort through the final details of the budget in a conference committee set for today.
That would give them just 24 hours to finish the to-do list, which is slowly starting to diminish, though some major bills remain in various forms of completion, including bills dealing with capital construction, the main budget, miscellaneous tax proposals, education consolidation and health care reform.
In addition, the Legislature is making final changes to the current use program and a bill that would authorize sending several hundred nonviolent offenders into community-release programs.
Lawmakers have also passed legislation to restructure the courts, a comprehensive plan to fix the unemployment fund, a law that will force health insurers to pick up the tab for autism treatments for young children, and new fines on slaughterhouses that mistreat animals. The Legislature has also completed work on transportation and fee bills.
The Senate overwhelmingly approved the Challenges for Change 2 legislation, 24-5, on Saturday after three days of debate in committees and on the floor. Five senators — Flory, Hartwell, Kittell, MacDonald, McCormack – voted against the legislation, which authorizes the Douglas administration to reorganize state government in eight key areas in order to reduce state spending permanently by $30.6 million.
“It’s all doable,” Smith said. “The question is whether we can resolve it (the tax and budget bills) in such a way that the governor wouldn’t feel compelled to veto the budget.”
The Challenges bill now goes to the House for approval, and from there it will be sent to the governor’s desk.
Legislators have an additional incentive (beyond campaigning) for adjourning early in the week: After Wednesday, room vacancies at local inns and hotels will be hard to come by, on account of local college graduations.
However, even if they finish in timely fashion this week, lawmakers are likely to make a summertime sojourn to Montpelier if Gov. Jim Douglas vetoes any of the measures.
“It’s all doable,” Smith said. “The question is whether we can resolve it (the tax and budget bills) in such a way that the governor wouldn’t feel compelled to veto the budget.”
Though Gov. Jim Douglas is loathe to actually use the word “veto,” he held five press conferences last week to underscore the message that unless lawmakers reduce state spending, along with significant cuts to property, capital gains and estate taxes, he’s not likely to sign the budget, tax or Challenges bills as passed by the House and Senate.
Douglas isn’t running for office again, so why is he pushing so hard for a veto? The answer lies in the upcoming election. Douglas has openly lobbied for fellow Republican Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie from the podium in his ceremonial office at the Statehouse, and his preferred successor has made cameo appearances at several of Douglas’ press conferences.
Douglas isn’t running for office again, so why is he pushing so hard for a veto? The answer lies in the upcoming election.
If the governor holds a hard line on the budget, lawmakers will be faced with returning for a special override session in June.
Smith and Senate President Pro Tem Peter Shumlin are trying to avoid that possibility. They made a conciliatory gesture to the governor on Friday, announcing they would not block a federal tax benefit for Vermont manufacturers, which was the main stumbling block in negotiations with the governor. But the concession wasn’t enough to appease the governor, even though Smith said the bill no longer has “anything offensive in it.”
Douglas wants the Legislature to retroactively restore a provision protecting 40 percent of capital gains income from tax liability and to rollback estate tax increases, which together raise $21 million in revenues.
Smith said he doesn’t believe the House can pass a repeal of the capital gains change.
“He believes we should create another $10 million hole in the budget by protecting the wealthiest 3 percent of Vermonters,” Smith said of the governor’s position. “I’d just like to remind everybody, the capital gains changes are consistent with the proposals he made three or four years ago, so he has completely changed his position on this particular issue, which is something he accused Doug Racine of doing when he ran for governor.”
When asked if the estate tax was still on the table, Smith replied: “We haven’t figured out what would be in the final version (of the tax bill). If we reached a deal, we could run it through on a separate bill.”
On the education front, Douglas says lawmakers are taking credit for the $22 million school boards found in savings for fiscal year 2011; he wants the Legislature to reduce spending further by imposing teacher-to-student ratios on schools or by requiring teachers to make a 20 percent contribution to health care premiums. In addition, he says, the Challenges bill doesn’t go far enough to ensure permanent spending reduction. It calls for voluntary school spending reductions of 2 percent for fiscal year 2012.
Smith said it isn’t clear that it will be possible to avoid a veto at this point.
Talks on the budget and taxes have yet to resume since the weekend, and Smith says, “The governor’s office hasn’t contacted me to have any discussions.”
David Coriell, the governor’s press secretary, says Douglas and the Democratic leaders are still talking.